Computer based horse race handicapping and wagering systems pdf

COMPUTER BASED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING AND WAGERING SYSTEMS PDF HOW TO
COMPUTER BASED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING AND WAGERING SYSTEMS PDF SOFTWARE

I'd rather not re-debate that issue though. I'm not sure a computer can make the fine line subjective judgments about the details of a horse's total record (and I say that as a former computer programmer with some understanding). It may be finding more bets, but producing a much lower ROI because of a bunch of extra unprofitable plays that resulted from less skill. The one minor question I have is whether a computer with 'less than human skill' can actually translate into finding more 'profitable' bets even though it is handicapping more races. So if you assume there are many profitable situations out there, a computer should find way more of them. A computer can certainly handicap way more races. I certainly understand the point about volume of bets.

COMPUTER BASED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING AND WAGERING SYSTEMS PDF SOFTWARE

It is not possible for software to tell you any more then what past performances can tell you. Why should the computer be restricted to a few summary stats?ДЄnd all of that calculating and crunching of information that may or may not indicate anything for today's race, can't come close to the human ability to go down to the paddock to spend one minute on answering the simple question, ' is the horse in question ready for a race today'. Have the computer analyze the same information you are - i.e.

Of course all this depends on the particular humans and computer programs involved, but I never understand why people always say things like, 'Well the computer can't consider this factor or that factor.' Why can't it? (Physical inspection of the horse computers can't do, but it can consider all the same stuff in a horse's or a trainer's record that a person can.) In this way, the computer can be just as 'effective' (or more so) than a single handicapper when considering total performance on 'the races' rather than just a single race. Will the human do it better given the same data? In many cases, yes, but the computer can process many more races than the person can, and so even if the advantage of the computer is not as great as the person on a particular race the computer can identify many more playable races. Why should the computer be restricted to a few summary stats? Maybe someone can explain that to me.Well, make it a fair test. I don't see how having statistics on recent activity and/or the trainer alone can analyze that situation as well as a human being that is familiar with the horse's entire recent record. Some of that has to do with the specific trainer, the quality of the horse, whether he has been working well in between, whether he typically works well between races, whether his PPs seem to suggest he was a tired horse that needed a freshening or whether his PPs seem to suggest that something had to be wrong etc. There are times when I see that a horse hasn't run for 8 weeks and consider it either irrelevant or a positive sign and others where I think it's a major negative. These advanced statistics and probabilities questions are way outside my range, but I've never understood how something like this could be as effective as a thorough analysis by a competent handicapper.Д®ven if you could identfiy all the overlaps between factors (IMO they are almost endless) and get at the core of what each factor contributes to the outcome, it seems to me that the 'weight' of each factor changes a great deal depending on the specific circumstances and race conditions. That is complex enough for a single factor of given D and how does that actually apply to my example handicapping factors?ДЄny advice on the best way to proceed or good references? Would a multiple factor Bayes Theorem approach be better than logit, the theorem states that if Hn is one of a set Hi, of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, then P(Hn|D) = P(D|Hn)P(Hn)/ОЈi.

COMPUTER BASED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING AND WAGERING SYSTEMS PDF HOW TO

If I know for example the average win probability of a last time out winner was 17%, and that horse is trained by a trainer who averages 11% winners, and etc etc - how to combine all those factors into an equation that estimates today's overall probability. What to do though if you already do know the individual probabilities for those individual factors to start with (that work has been done for larger samples than 500), but don't immediately know how they should be mixed together with all the other factors (the old add them all up or multiply them together issue). They used 500 races to find the statistical average weighting to those factors. Bolton and Chapman applied logit regression to races using multiple factors similar to those handicappers might use.

Computer based horse race handicapping and wagering systems pdf